Oil: Trend Insights from Futures and Options

Brought to you by CME Group

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Highlights:

  • Oil futures suggest long-term equilibrium price at about $50.
  • Options differ, implied volatility is well above 5-year average.
  • Oil prices might trade in a wide range over the long term.
  • U.S. the real swing producer, able to turn tap off/on quickly.
  • Instability in oil-producing nations could lift prices.

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